Marin Market Minute 

Here's what's actually happening in Marin real estate right now, and what it means for your wallet.

The headline: Marin is still hot

While national headlines worry about tariffs and rate uncertainty, Marin didn't get the memo. Q2 2026 median sale price for a single family home hit $1,865,000, up from $1,802,508 a year ago. Homes are moving in a median of 13 days, down from 17 days last year. More than half of all listings sold above asking, with sellers pocketing an average of 104.7% of list price.

Translation: if your home is priced right and shows well, buyers are still lining up.

The numbers behind the numbers

Countywide trade volume tells the same story. Through this point in 2025, Marin had seen 2,211 trades totaling 4.43 billion dollars. As of yesterday, 2026 is already at 2,558 trades and 4.55 billion dollars, 347 more trades than last year at this point.

The luxury tier is where it gets really interesting. Properties over 5 million dollars on the MLS are at 1.80 billion dollars across 148 trades so far this year, compared to just 722 million dollars across 98 trades at this point last year. That's not a small bump. That's a market segment waking up.

Town by town, it's a different story

Mill Valley remains Marin's strongest seller's market. 85% of homes closed within 30 days at nearly 110% of original list, on a median price of $2.55 million. Buyers here write checks fast and don't blink.

Tiburon plays a different game. Median sale price of $3.425 million, the highest in the county, but buyers there negotiate even at that level. Only a 103% overbid, the most disciplined premium in Marin.

Novato is the one to watch. Longest days on market in the county at 22 days, lowest overbid at just above asking, and only 67% of homes selling within 30 days. Novato buyers finance more than they pay cash, so when rates move, Novato feels it first. This is your early warning signal for where the broader market is headed.

Across the county, the math is brutal for anyone who waits. Homes that sold within 30 days went for about 5% over asking. Homes that sat past 120 days sold for roughly 16% under. That's a swing of more than 380,000 dollars on a typical home. Speed protects your price. Every time.

Big news for San Rafael property owners

San Rafael's City Council just voted to put a measure on the November ballot that would raise the city's real property transfer tax from 0.2% to 1%, a five fold jump. The money would go toward police, fire, roads and parks.

If it passes, that's a real cost shift at closing. On a 1.5 million dollar sale, we're talking the difference between a 3,000 dollar transfer tax and a 15,000 dollar one. If you've been sitting on a decision to sell in San Rafael, this is worth a real conversation before November.

What this means for buyers

Rates and affordability are still the story nationally, and any escalation out of the Middle East could keep pressure on inflation and rates through the fall. Locking in now, before a possible transfer tax hike and before rate relief gets pushed further out, is worth weighing seriously. Novato's slower pace and more measured overbids may be your best entry point in the county right now.

What this means for sellers

Marin inventory is tight and buyers are motivated. If you've been on the fence, the data says don't wait past the 30 day mark once you list. Price it right, present it well, and let the market do the rest. And if you're in San Rafael, the November transfer tax vote is a real deadline to build into your timeline.

Questions about your specific street or situation? That's what I'm here for!  Reach out anytime.